Sustainable Energy & Chemicals

Energy & Chemicals Research and Advisory

Home

/

Our Expertise

/

Energy & Chemicals Research and Advisory

Financial modeling, market intelligence, regulatory analysis, supply chain due diligence, and investment advisory for oil and gas operators, power and utility companies, petrochemical and specialty chemical producers, and the institutional investors and PE/VC funds active across the energy and chemicals value chain.

The Sector Today

The energy and chemicals sectors are navigating a transition that is simultaneously a commercial opportunity and an operational challenge. For upstream and midstream oil and gas operators, the question is no longer whether the energy transition changes the business model but how quickly, and which assets remain commercially viable through the cycle. LNG arbitrage opportunities across Atlantic and Pacific basin markets are creating short-term value, but the long-term capital allocation question for hydrocarbon assets requires a clear-eyed view of demand trajectories under multiple policy scenarios.

For petrochemical and specialty chemical producers, the pressure is coming from multiple directions: feedstock volatility tied to crude and natural gas prices, ESG-driven demand shifts toward bio-based and circular chemistry and increasing regulatory burden on emissions-intensive production. Carbon capture and storage (CCS) is moving from demonstration-stage to commercial deployment in several markets, creating both compliance obligations and investment opportunities that require project-level financial analysis distinct from conventional infrastructure modeling.

For investors, the complexity is in separating the energy transition assets that will generate durable returns from those that are regulatory-dependent or technology-dependent in ways the current valuation does not reflect. The analytical frameworks that worked for conventional energy assets in 2015 are insufficient for the portfolio decisions being made today.

The capital allocation decisions in energy and chemicals that will look right in ten years are the ones being made today with a rigorous view of the demand side, not just the supply side. Most current models get the supply side right and underestimate how fast the demand side is moving.

Who We Serve

Oil and Gas and Power Operators

Upstream, midstream, and downstream oil and gas companies, power and utility companies, OFSE firms, and energy retailers that need market intelligence, regulatory monitoring, supply chain due diligence, and strategic analysis to support portfolio decisions, energy transition planning, and operational performance.

Chemical Producers and Industrial Manufacturers

Basic and specialty chemical companies, petrochemical producers, agrochemical firms, and industrial manufacturers that need market intelligence, competitive benchmarking, technology scouting, and financial modeling to support capacity investment, product portfolio decisions, and sustainability strategy.

Energy and Chemicals Investors

Institutional investors, PE and VC firms, and asset managers with energy and chemicals mandates that need independent investment research, target screening, portfolio monitoring, and deal support across conventional energy, energy transition, and specialty chemicals assets.

What We Deliver

Market & Regulatory Intelligence · Operational Intelligence · Technology Scouting · Risk & Supply Chain Due Diligence · Strategic & Capital Advisory · PE/VC Advisory

Market and Regulatory Intelligence

Energy demand-supply modeling, regulatory monitoring, and competitive intelligence for oil and gas operators, power companies, and chemical producers navigating policy shifts, carbon pricing frameworks, and energy transition dynamics.

Energy demand-supply modeling

scenario-based forecasting across fuels, chemicals, feedstocks, and energy transition technologies integrating policy signals, adoption curves, and capital flow data.

Automated regulatory monitoring

tracking of evolving policy landscapes including carbon pricing mechanisms, emissions standards, and energy transition incentive frameworks to assess compliance risk and investment implications.

Competitive intelligence

analysis of peer CapEx trends, R&D flows, and management commentary from earnings calls and regulatory filings to forecast strategic shifts.

LNG arbitrage and gas market analysis

Atlantic and Pacific basin LNG price differential tracking, regasification terminal utilisation, and long-term gas demand trajectory modeling.

CCS regulatory and commercial framework analysis

assessment of carbon capture project economics, 45Q tax credit structures in the US, EU ETS implications, and CCUS policy frameworks across GCC markets.

Analytical Outputs We Produce

LNG and gas market demand-supply models with Atlantic and Pacific basin arbitrage analysis.

CCS project-level financial models incorporating 45Q tax credits, EU ETS pricing, and GCC regulatory frameworks.

Energy transition asset valuation frameworks covering green hydrogen co-location economics, CCS, and renewable power integration.

Feedstock volatility and supply chain risk assessments across crude, natural gas, and specialty chemical inputs.

Petrochemical cracker margin analysis and competitive benchmarking across global ethylene and propylene markets.

Pre-IPO financial models and investor pitch decks for energy and chemicals fundraising mandates.

Portfolio performance dashboards tracking production volumes, carbon intensity, and margin evolution.

Energy & Chemicals in Practice

Case Study

CCS Investment Thesis and Project Economics for a European Energy Fund

A European energy-focused PE fund evaluating entry into carbon capture and storage commissioned Perusal Global for investment thesis development, project economics modeling, and regulatory framework analysis. The work covered CCS technology benchmarking across post-combustion and pre-combustion capture approaches, 45Q tax credit structure analysis for US projects, EU ETS pricing scenario modeling, project-level financial models for two target assets in North Sea and industrial cluster settings, and supply chain due diligence on CO2 transport and storage infrastructure. The output shaped the fund's investment committee submission and informed the structuring of a lead investment in a CCS project developer.

Frequently Asked Questions

A CCS project financial model is built around four sets of assumptions. Capture economics: cost per tonne of CO2 captured, dependent on source stream concentration, capture technology, and facility scale. Transport and storage costs: pipeline or shipping costs to the storage formation and geological storage cost, which varies significantly by site. Revenue streams: 45Q tax credits in the US, EU ETS allowances in Europe, and any contractual carbon offtake arrangements. Regulatory risk: the permanence and enforceability of the policy framework generating the revenue. The investment case is strongest where multiple revenue streams overlap, for example US projects capturing both 45Q credits and voluntary carbon market payments.

LNG arbitrage analysis tracks the price differential between LNG supply basins, principally the US Gulf Coast, Australia, Qatar, and West Africa, and demand basins in Europe, Japan, South Korea, China, and India. The analysis covers spot and forward LNG prices, shipping rates and vessel availability, regasification terminal utilisation across receiving markets, and the structural demand drivers in each basin. For an energy investor or operator, arbitrage analysis informs long-term offtake contracting decisions, liquefaction investment timing, and portfolio exposure to specific supply-demand corridors.

Energy transition risk assessment for an O&G portfolio covers three analytical layers. Asset-level: breakeven oil price, carbon intensity, and production cost trajectory for each asset. Strategy-level: the credible transition pathway for the portfolio, including potential diversification into energy transition assets, CCS investment, or low-carbon business lines. The financial model for the transition pathway is where most current O&G strategies are weakest. It is typically less rigorous than the model for the existing hydrocarbon business.

Specialty chemicals M&A due diligence covers market position, feedstock exposure, technology moat, and customer concentration. Market position establishes whether the target has genuine pricing power in its end markets or competes primarily on cost. Feedstock exposure analysis identifies which raw material inputs represent the most significant margin risk and how effectively the target manages feedstock price pass-through. Technology moat assessment evaluates the defensibility of proprietary formulations, process technology, and patent protection. The financial model stress-tests deal economics under feedstock price scenarios, volume downside cases, and loss of key customer scenarios.

Green hydrogen project finance assessment covers production economics, offtake market, and project risk. Production economics: electrolyser capital cost, capacity factor, renewable electricity cost, and the resulting levelized cost of hydrogen production compared against the target offtake price. Offtake market: who is buying the hydrogen, at what price, under what contract terms, and what is the creditworthiness of the off taker? Projects without contracted offtake cannot support project finance regardless of production economics. GCC green hydrogen projects specifically require assessment against Saudi Vision 2030 and UAE Net Zero 2050 commitments, which are the primary policy drivers for project feasibility.

Supply chain due diligence for energy and chemicals transactions covers feedstock security, logistics infrastructure, and regulatory compliance. Feedstock security: concentration of supply sources, contractual protection on key feedstock agreements, and vulnerability to geopolitical disruption. Logistics infrastructure: reliability and cost of transport to market for the specific product, including pipeline access, terminal availability, and shipping market exposure. Regulatory compliance: emissions obligations, chemical registration requirements, and import/export licence exposure. For specialty chemical acquisitions, the assessment also covers freedom to operate across key markets, requiring an IP and regulatory filing review alongside the commercial analysis.

Plastic pyrolysis and chemical recycling investments require a layered analytical framework distinct from conventional chemicals or waste management due diligence. Technology layer: what is the conversion efficiency of the pyrolysis or chemical recycling process, what feedstock quality is required, and how does the output quality compare to virgin petrochemical feedstocks? The answer determines whether the output can command a premium price or is constrained to discount applications. Economics layer: the financial model has to capture feedstock cost and availability, processing cost, output price realisation, and the regulatory treatment of the output: whether it qualifies as recycled content under Extended Producer Responsibility frameworks or plastics taxes in the target market. Offtake layer: who is buying the output and why? Chemical companies with mandatory recycled content targets under regulatory commitments are the most creditworthy off takers; spot market exposure without contracted demand creates significant revenue risk at this stage of technology maturity. Regulatory layer: plastic pyrolysis and chemical recycling face inconsistent regulatory classification across jurisdictions: some treat the process as recycling, others as waste incineration, which affects permitting, gate fees, and the business model's regulatory durability. The investment case is most defensible where a contracted offtake, regulatory certainty, and proven technology at commercial scale are all present simultaneously.

Ready to Work?

The first conversation is about the specific decision your team is facing: an energy transition asset that needs modeling, a chemicals M&A target that needs diligence, a fund portfolio that needs monitoring across regulatory and commodity cycles, or an operator evaluating a CCS or green hydrogen investment. We will tell you precisely how we approach it.